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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 3 at the 22
Dallas Cowboys 31 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at NE 31 for -9 yards (91-D.Wise).
The Three Options
GO
+1.91 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
- 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
KICK
+1.59 EP
- 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
