Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 71

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to DAL 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for 12 yards (41-B.Schooler). PENALTY on NE-49-J.Cardona, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model