Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New England Patriots 3

(12:05) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-D.Douglas to NE 10 for -2 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model