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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 31 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model