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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.88 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth +0.13 EP
PUNT +0.80 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP