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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 40

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 7-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 38. 26-D.Bland to DAL 48 for 10 yards (7-J.Smith-Schuster).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model