4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 18 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP