4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

KC
50.0%
JAX
50.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than JAX
  • QB edge to KC: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.125 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.212 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Illness
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Knee

JAX

Antonio Johnson S Out Hamstring
Gregory Junior CB Out Hamstring
Luke Fortner C Questionable Ankle
Tyler Lacy DE Questionable Hip
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17
–
JAX 9

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:03 FG JAX (13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:30 TD KC (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. KC 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 7 – JAX 6
  • Q3 11:36 TD KC (11:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – JAX 6
  • Q4 13:48 FG JAX (13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 14 – JAX 9
  • Q4 08:15 FG KC (8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 17 – JAX 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 39%

    (10:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-C.Conner.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 14 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 63%

    (4:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to JAX 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-35-Ja.Watson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%

    (4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at 50 for -5 yards (95-C.Jones).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 49%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to JAX 32 for 10 yards (33-D.Lloyd; 32-Ty.Campbell).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to KC 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 9 for 4 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 7 yards (44-Ca.Jones).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to KC 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to JAX 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 23 for -2 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (10:24) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 28 for 2 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (4:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley (38-L.Sneed). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.