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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to KC 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 14 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model