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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley (38-L.Sneed). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP