Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(8:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to KC 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James to KC 9 for 4 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model