Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(4:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 7 yards (44-Ca.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model