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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 1 at the 30
Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9
What Actually Happened
(10:24) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to JAX 28 for 2 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
The Three Options
GO
+2.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.04 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
KICK
+0.86 EP
- 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
