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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 31, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-C.Conner.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP