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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to JAX 32 for 10 yards (33-D.Lloyd; 32-Ty.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model