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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

GB
52.8%
ATL
47.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Desmond Ridder (ATL) +0.001 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.156 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

GB

David Bakhtiari T Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Quay Walker LB Questionable Concussion
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

ATL

Troy Andersen LB Out Concussion
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 24
–
ATL 25

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:53 FG ATL (3:53) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. GB 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 13:40 TD GB (13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 03:10 FG GB (3:10) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:16 TD ATL (:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [7-Q.Walker]. GB 10 – ATL 9
  • Q3 10:39 TD GB (10:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – ATL 9
  • Q3 03:12 FG ATL (3:12) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 17 – ATL 12
  • Q3 01:01 TD GB (1:01) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – ATL 12
  • Q4 11:54 TD ATL (11:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – ATL 18
  • Q4 08:13 FG ATL (8:13) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. GB 24 – ATL 22
  • Q4 01:01 FG ATL (1:01) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. GB 24 – ATL 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%

    (14:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (3:53) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 54%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London (23-J.Alexander).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (3:10) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 85%

    (:30) 7-B.Robinson right end pushed ob at GB 13 for 13 yards (59-D.Campbell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 35, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (3:12) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 20 for 4 yards (34-J.Owens). PENALTY on GB-34-J.Owens, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (8:13) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to ATL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 27 for 16 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%

    (2:08) 7-B.Robinson right end to GB 16 for 7 yards (20-R.Ford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (1:01) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.