4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 7

Atlanta Falcons 22 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.85 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model