Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -1.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model