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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model