Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 20 for 4 yards (34-J.Owens). PENALTY on GB-34-J.Owens, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model