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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short left to 5-D.London (23-J.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model