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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 7-B.Robinson right end pushed ob at GB 13 for 13 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.61 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model