Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 22

(6:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to ATL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 27 for 16 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model