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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SF
51.5%
PIT
48.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.012 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.266 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

George Kittle TE Questionable Groin
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Heel

PIT

Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 30
–
PIT 7

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:34 TD SF (9:34) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 04:41 FG SF (4:41) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – PIT 0
  • Q2 13:36 TD SF (13:36) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – PIT 0
  • Q2 08:26 FG SF (8:26) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – PIT 0
  • Q2 00:13 TD PIT (:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – PIT 6
  • Q3 14:15 TD SF (14:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – PIT 7
  • Q4 05:34 FG SF (5:34) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 30 – PIT 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:22) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to SF 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (11:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to PIT 34 for 11 yards (50-E.Roberts; 20-P.Peterson).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (4:41) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to SF 32 for 15 yards (46-C.Kuntz, 28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to SF 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to SF 35 for 7 yards (46-C.Kuntz, 37-E.Riley). PENALTY on PIT-46-C.Kuntz, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 35.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (8:26) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to SF 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (1:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 26-A.McFarland to SF 11 for 5 yards (20-A.Thomas).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 42%

    (12:07) 6-P.Harvin punts 28 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-C.Austin to PIT 6 for 2 yards (0-S.Womack).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to SF 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to PIT 38 for 19 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 42%

    (12:52) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (5:34) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at SF 32 for -7 yards (98-J.Hargrave).