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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP