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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model