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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 88

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to SF 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to PIT 38 for 19 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP