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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model