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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at SF 32 for -7 yards (98-J.Hargrave).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP