Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(3:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-R.McCloud to SF 32 for 15 yards (46-C.Kuntz, 28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model