4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 6-P.Harvin punts 28 yards to SF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP