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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
55.2%
NE
44.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Mac Jones (NE) -0.045 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.163 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NE 21
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PHI

No players on the report.

NE

Jack Jones CB Out Hamstring
Matt Corral QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Illness
Michael Onwenu G Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 25
–
NE 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 FG PHI (7:46) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. PHI 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 05:12 TD PHI (5:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 30. 2-D.Slay for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NE 0
  • Q1 02:47 TD PHI (2:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – NE 0
  • Q2 04:39 TD NE (4:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – NE 6
  • Q2 00:30 TD NE (:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – NE 13
  • Q3 08:52 FG PHI (8:52) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. PHI 19 – NE 14
  • Q4 13:26 FG PHI (13:26) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. Kick deflected in off left upright. PHI 22 – NE 14
  • Q4 05:38 FG PHI (5:38) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. PHI 25 – NE 14
  • Q4 03:43 TD NE (3:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 25 – NE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (7:46) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to PHI 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 10-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to NE 32, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones pushed ob at PHI 47 for 21 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (13:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:58) 10-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to NE 43, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 43 for no gain (21-S.Brown).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 29%

    (10:42) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Covey to PHI 14 for 5 yards (3-M.Wilson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:30) 10-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 29 for no gain (28-J.Jobe). FUMBLES (28-J.Jobe), ball out of bounds at NE 29.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:39) 10-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to NE 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 25 yards (41-B.Schooler; 23-K.Dugger).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 64%

    (8:52) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 80%

    (13:26) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. Kick deflected in off left upright.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (11:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to PHI 24 for 12 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (9:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-E.Elliott [7-H.Reddick].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 75%

    (5:38) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 38%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 48%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 6-D.Smith (6-C.Gonzalez) [9-M.Judon].

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.94 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Boutte pushed ob at PHI 8 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Boutte (28-J.Jobe).