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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 10-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to NE 43, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 43 for no gain (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.45 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model