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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 44

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model