4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model