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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 10-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 29 for no gain (28-J.Jobe). FUMBLES (28-J.Jobe), ball out of bounds at NE 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model