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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 20

New England Patriots 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 25

What Actually Happened

(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Boutte pushed ob at PHI 8 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 80-K.Boutte (28-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.67 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.94 EP