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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 36

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to PHI 24 for 12 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP