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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-A.Siposs. Kick deflected in off left upright.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model