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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

HOU
30.3%
BAL
69.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.239 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

HOU

Blake Cashman LB Out Hamstring
John Metchie WR Out Hamstring
Jimmie Ward S Out Hip
Dare Ogunbowale RB Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Marlon Humphrey CB Out Foot
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 9
–
BAL 25

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:05 TD BAL (1:05) 27-J.Dobbins right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 04:01 FG HOU (4:01) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 3 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:05 FG HOU (:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 6 – BAL 7
  • Q3 09:58 TD BAL (9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BAL 13
  • Q3 05:24 TD BAL (5:24) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – BAL 21
  • Q4 13:51 FG HOU (13:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner. HOU 9 – BAL 22
  • Q4 04:14 FG BAL (4:14) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. HOU 9 – BAL 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:00) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to HOU 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-N.Dell to HOU 38 for 14 yards (21-B.Stephens; 53-D.Phillips).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 24%

    (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 36 for -11 yards (6-P.Queen).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:35) 16-T.Zentner punts 39 yards to BAL 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (15:00) 16-T.Zentner punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (4:01) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:01) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:50) 16-T.Zentner punts 48 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (7:40) 31-D.Pierce right tackle to HOU 42 for no gain (0-R.Smith, 58-M.Pierce).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 35%

    (1:44) 16-T.Zentner punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 93%

    (13:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:21) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to HOU 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 13 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to 85-N.Brown.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 31%

    (1:04) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 22-M.Boone pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards (26-G.Stone).