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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 17

Houston Texans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model