Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 22 – Houston Texans 9

(10:21) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to HOU 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.71 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model