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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 18

Houston Texans 6 – Baltimore Ravens 22

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model