Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 91

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:00) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to HOU 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-N.Dell to HOU 38 for 14 yards (21-B.Stephens; 53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.19 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model