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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model