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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 48

Houston Texans 6 – Baltimore Ravens 22

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 16-T.Zentner punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model