Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 69

Houston Texans 9 – Baltimore Ravens 25

(:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 22-M.Boone pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

What Happened

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.04 EP
49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -0.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP