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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-01-22 · 15:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
45.5%
BUF
54.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

CIN

Alex Cappa G Out Ankle
Jonah Williams T Out Knee
Tre Flowers CB Doubtful Hamstring

BUF

DaQuan Jones DT Questionable Calf
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
BUF 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:48 TD CIN (11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 03:51 TD CIN (3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 07:29 TD BUF (7:29) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – BUF 6
  • Q2 01:52 FG CIN (1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 17 – BUF 7
  • Q3 07:45 FG BUF (7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. CIN 17 – BUF 10
  • Q3 01:18 TD CIN (1:18) 28-J.Mixon left guard to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson, 58-M.Milano). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – BUF 10
  • Q4 11:25 FG CIN (11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 27 – BUF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:12) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 28 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:22) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 33 for 14 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%

    (:13) 4-D.Chrisman punts 28 yards to BUF 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%

    (11:12) 17-J.Allen left guard to CIN 21 for 2 yards (98-D.Reader; 55-L.Wilson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:52) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (:47) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (:11) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (11:25) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. Penalty on BUF-4-J.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis (20-E.Apple) [94-S.Hubbard].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:39) 4-D.Chrisman punts 45 yards to BUF 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.