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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model