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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:11) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP